You’ve probably heard some of the following sayings and terms from the
financial press…”Sell in May and Go Away”, “The Santa Claus Rally”, “The
January Effect”, etc. The question is, does the stock market have seasonal patterns that an investor can use to enhance their returns? The answer is yes, but…
There is, in fact, a seasonal bias to the stock market, and by paying
attention to these market tendencies your portfolio can gain a slight
edge over the long haul. However, these macro trends don’t always hold
true, and won’t save you when you’re wrong on a micro trend. In other
words, there may be an historical upward bias in the stock market
between Christmas and New Years Day (i.e. The Santa Claus Rally) but if
you’re making bad choices on which sectors, industries, or individual
stocks to buy, you will still end up with losses in your account…and
coal in your stocking.
There are many identifiable seasonal patterns in the market. Below is
a description of the most popular ones, along with our opinions on why
the pattern exists and how to use it to your advantage:
Sell in May and Go Away
This saying is an old British adage based on the idea that the period
from November to April has stronger historical market growth on average
than May through October. Statistically, this is correct.
Looking at the performance of the S & P 500 dating back to 1926, a
trader who each year sold the index stocks in May and bought back in
October would have created an average annual return of 8.4% over the
last 86 years. By contrast, those who followed the opposite strategy of
buying in May and selling in October would have generated a return of
only 5.1%. Both calculations include dividends and interest on the cash
that would be seasonably generated, but not transaction costs or taxes.
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So the adage is true, but… If you had not sold in May and held your
stocks year round, you would have generated a return of 10.0% over the
same time period, while minimizing both tax consequences and transaction
costs.
Santa Claus Rally
As mentioned earlier, it’s the historical rise in stock prices in the
last week of the calendar year. The Santa Claus rally is really created
by the next two patterns we’re going to cover. It is a combination of
traders buying in anticipation of the January Effect, and fund managers
buying stocks prior to the end of the year for Window Dressing.
There can be some short term profits to be made here if you buy in
ahead of the rally. Plus, when you take profits, you get another year to
pay the taxes because you sold after January 1st. Since these gains
will be short-term, that does make a nice little tax deferral.
January Effect
This phenomenon is that small cap stocks outperform mid and large
size companies during the month of January. The rationale behind the
January Effect is that institutional and individual traders who are tax
sensitive tend to sell late in the year in order to take losses on
riskier stocks.
IRS rules dictate that you must wait 30 days to buy the same stock
back, or you will have a wash sale and your tax loss will be disallowed.
So, 30 days after selling in December for taxes, there is more buying
in small companies in January.
In recent years, the January Effect has been quite muted and there
are few, if any, arbitrage opportunities for investors who want to take
advantage of the effect.
Window Dressing
This is the idea that stocks on an upward swing will get stronger at
the end of the calendar quarter because mutual fund managers sell
under-performing stocks from their portfolios and use the proceeds to
buy good performing stocks that will make their funds appear more
successful. It’s done as a marketing ploy.
There can be some short term profits to be made by picking the
correct high flying stocks, but… it takes very little time for those
profits to disappear if you hold too long.
Earnings Season
Earnings season comprises most of the month following the end of each
calendar quarter. Companies will start announcing earnings as early as
the second week of the month and within a few weeks, the vast majority
of publicly traded companies will have announced.
If you watch the larger, bell weather stocks early in the earnings
season, often times you can pick up on a trend of strong or weak
earnings. While each individual company has the opportunity to buck the
trend, more often than not, the majority will fall into either the camp
of positive or negative results, and the market direction will follow
the majority. These trends can be strong at times, but… every now and
then, will reverse themselves mid-season.
Triple Witching
Triple Witching occurs on the third Friday of every March, June,
September, and December. This is the day when stock options, index
futures, and index options all expire on the same day. This day
typically has high trading volume with high levels of volatility,
particularly in the last hour before the stock market closes, which is
known as, “The Witching Hour”.
Some day traders look at the increased volume and volatility as
opportunities to make quick gains, which is true, but… There are also
opportunities for quick losses and getting whipsawed. Our recommendation
is to stay out of it. We look at Triple Witching day as a great day to
get out of the office and spend time doing something you enjoy.
In summary, yes, the stock market does have seasonal patterns that can be
identified through historical data.
However, it’s important to note that these are not etched in stone, and
will have varied levels of strengths and weaknesses depending upon
other prevailing market conditions. Therefore, seasonality patterns
should not be used as a primary trading consideration, nor for that
matter, even a secondary consideration. It is just something to keep in
the back of your mind when determining entry and exit points.
If you trade index ETFs, options, or futures, you should probably pay
more attention to the seasonality of the markets than somebody who
trades a more concentrated portfolio of individual stocks, but… frankly,
not that much.
*If you’d like to learn more about the subject of stock market seasonality patterns, we recommend reading the book,
“Seasonal Stock Market Trends: The Definitive Guide to Calendar-Based Stock Market Trading”, by Jay Kaeppel. It’s available on Amazon in either a hardcover or Kindle version.
Click here to read reviews or buy yourself a copy today.
P.S.
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